I've heard is that the government started by subsidizing concrete. After many years making concrete, they wanted to move up the chain and start more complex manufacturing. They eventually got to building ships, because shipping was a critical part of the export economy they wanted to create.
They pulled some of their best business people who had learned skills like management and operations in other manufacturing. Those people knew they didn't have the expertise to build ships themselves, so they contracted it out. They made the choice to work with Scottish firms, because Scotland has a long history of shipbuilding. Makes sense, right?
It didn't work. For historical and geographic reasons, Scotland's shipyards weren't full-sized; they built their ships in two halves and then assembled them. Worked fine for them, because they'd be doing it at scale since the 1800s, and had world renowned expertise by the 1900s. But when the unpracticed Koreans tried to build ships using Scottish plans and detailed step-by-step directions, the result was two ship halves that didn't quite fit together and sunk when assembled.
The Koreans eventually managed to start a shipbuilding industry by hiring foreign companies to come and build ships locally, showing people how it's done. And it took decades to get what we would consider basic manufacturing working smoothly, even though one might think that all of the requisite knowledge existed in books, was taught in university courses, and could be had from experts for a small fee. Now, their manufacturing industries are world class, e.g., according to Consumer Reports, Hyundai and Kia produce reliable cars. Going from producing unreliable econoboxes to reliable cars you can buy took over a decade, like it did for Toyota when they did it decades earlier. If there's a shortcut to quality other than hiring a lot of people who've done it before, no one's discovered it yet.
Today, any programmer can take Geoffrey Hinton's course on neural networks and deep learning, and start applying state of the art machine learning techniques. In software land, you can fix minor bugs in real time. If it takes a whole day to run your regression test suite, you consider yourself lucky because it means you're in one of the few environments that takes testing seriously. If the architecture is fundamentally flawed, you pull out your copy of Feathers' “Working Effectively with Legacy Code” and repeatedly apply fixes.
This isn't to say that software isn't hard, but there are a lot of valueable problems that don't need a decade of hard-won experience to attack. But if you want to build a ship, and you "only" have a decade of experience with carpentry, milling, metalworking, etc., well, good luck. You're going to need it. With a large ship, “minor” fixes can take days or weeks, and a fundamental flaw means that your ship sinks and you've lost half a year of work and tens of millions of dollars. By the time you get to something with the complexity of a modern high-performance microprocessor, a minor bug discovered in production costs three months and millions of dollars. A fundamental flaw in the architecture will cost you five years and hundreds of millions of dollars2.
Physical mistakes are costly. There's no undo and editing isn't simply a matter of pressing some keys; changes consume real, physical resources. You need enough wisdom and experience to avoid common mistakes entirely – especially the ones that can't be fixed.
Thanks to Sophia Wisdom for comments/corrections/discussion.
In retrospect, I think that I was too optimistic about software in this post. If we're talking about product-market fit and success, I don't think the attitude in the post is wrong and people with little to no experience often do create hits. But now that I've been in the industry for a while and talked to numerous people about infra at various startups as well as large companies, I think creating high quality software infra requires no less experience than creating high quality physical items. Companies that decided this wasn't the case and hire a bunch of smart folks from top schools to build their infra have ended up with low quality, unreliable, expensive, and difficult to operate infrastructure. It just turns out that, if you have very good product-market fit, you don't need your infra to work. Your company can survive and even thrive while having infra that has 2 9s of uptime and costs an order of magnitude more than your competitor's infra or if your product's architecture means that it can't possibly work correctly. You'll make less money than you would've otherwise, but the high order bits are all on the product side. If you contrast that chip companies with inexperienced engineers that didn't produce a working product, well, you can't really sell a product that doesn't work even if you try. If you get very lucky, like if you happened to start deep learning chip company at the right time, you might get big company to acquire your non-working product. But, it's much harder to get an exit like that for a microprocessor.
A funny side effect of the importance of experience is that age discrimination doesn't affect the areas I've worked in. At 30, I'm bizarrely young for someone who's done microprocessor design. The core folks at my old place were in their 60s. They'd picked up some younger folks along the way, but 30? Freakishly young. People are much younger at the new gig: I'm surrounded by ex-supercomputer folks from Cray and SGI, who are barely pushing 50, along with a couple kids from Synplify and DESRES who, at 40, are unusually young. Not all hardware folks are that old. In another arm of the company, there are folks who grew up in the FPGA world, which is a lot more forgiving. In that group, I think I met someone who's only a few years older than me. Kidding aside, you'll see younger folks doing RTL design on complex projects at large companies that are willing to spend a decade mentoring folks. But, at startups and on small hardware teams that move fast, it's rare to hire someone into design who doesn't have a decade of experience.
There's a crowd that's even younger than the FPGA folks, even younger than me, working on Arduinos and microcontrollers, doing hobbyist electronics and consumer products. I'm genuinely curious how many of those folks will decide to work on large-scale systems design. In one sense, it's inevitable, as the area matures, and solutions become more complex. The other sense is what I'm curious about: will the hardware renaissance spark an interest in supercomputers, microprocessors, and warehouse-scale computers?
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