It's not uncommon for programmers at trendy tech companies to make $350k/yr or more (2015, stated number was $250k/yr at the time)
My posts on compensation have the dubious distinction of being the posts most frequently called out both for being so obvious that they're pointless as well as for being laughably wrong. I suspect they're also the posts that have had the largest aggregate impact on people -- I've had a double digit number of people tell me one of the compensation posts changed their life and they now make $x00,000/yr more than they used to because they know it's possible to get a much higher paying job and I doubt that I even hear from 10% of the people who make a big change as a result of learning that it's possible to make a lot more money.
When I wrote my first post on compensation, in 2015, I got ridiculed more for writing something obviously wrong than for writing something obvious, but the last few years things have flipped around. I still get the occasional bit of ridicule for being wrong when some corner of Twitter or a web forum that's well outside the HN/reddit bubble runs across my post, but the ratio of “obviously wrong” to “obvious” has probably gone from 20:1 to 1:5.
Opinions on monorepos have also seen a similar change since 2015. Outside of some folks at big companies, monorepos used to be considered obviously stupid among people who keep up with trends, but this has really changed. Not as much as opinions on compensation, but enough that I'm now a little surprised when I meet a hardline anti-monorepo-er.
Although it's taken longer for opinions to come around on CPU bugs, that's probably the post that now gets the least ridicule from the list above.
That markets don't eliminate all discrimination is the one where opinions have come around the least. Hardline "all markets are efficient" folks aren't really convinced by academic work like Becker's The Economics of Discrimination or summaries like the evidence laid out in the post.
The posts on computers having higher latency and the lack of empirical evidence of the benefit of types are the posts I've seen pointed to the most often to defend a ridiculable opinion. I didn't know when I started doing the work for either post and they both happen to have turned up evidence that's the opposite of the most common loud claims (there's very good evidence that advanced type systems improve safety in practice and of course computers are faster in every way, people who think they're slower are just indulging in nostalgia). I don't know if this has changed many opinion. However, I haven't gotten much direct ridicule for either post even though both posts directly state a position I see commonly ridiculed online. I suspect that's partially because both posts are empirical, so there's not much to dispute (though the post on discrimnation is also empirical, but it still gets its share of ridicule).
The last idea in the list is more meta: no one directly tells me that I should use more obscure terminology. Instead, I get comments that I must not know much about X because I'm not using terms of art. Using terms of art is a common way to establish credibility or authority, but that's something I don't really believe in. Arguing from authority doesn't tell you anything; adding needless terminology just makes things more difficult for readers who aren't in the field and are reading because they're interested in the topic but don't want to actually get into the field.
This is a pretty fundamental disagreement that I have with a lot of people. Just for example, I recently got into a discussion with an authority who insisted that it wasn't possible for me to reasonably disagree with them (I suggested we agree to disagree) because they're an authority on the topic and I'm not. It happens that I worked on the formal verification of a system very similar to the system we were discussing, but I didn't mention that because I don't believe that my status as an authority on the topic matters. If someone has such a weak argument that they have to fall back on an infallible authority, that's usually a sign that they don't have a well-reasoned defense of their position. This goes double when they point to themselves as the infallible authority.
I have about 20 other posts on stupid sounding ideas queued up in my head, but I mostly try to avoid writing things that are controversial, so I don't know that I'll write many of those up. If I were to write one post a month (much more frequently than my recent rate) and limit myself to 10% posts on ridiculable ideas, it would take 16 years to write up all of the ridiculable ideas I currently have.
Thanks to Leah Hanson, Hillel Wayne, Robert Schuessler, Michael Malis, Kevin Burke, Jeremie Jost, Pierre-Yves Baccou, Veit Heller, Jeff Fowler, Malte Skarupe, David Turner, Akiva Leffert, Lifan Zeng, John Hergenroder, Wesley Aptekar-Cassels, Chris Lample, Julia Evans, Anja Boskovic, Vaibhav Sagar, Sean Talts, Valentin Hartmann, Sean Barrett, Kevin Shannon, Enzo Ferey, Yuri Vishnevsky, and an anonymous commenter for comments/corrections/discussion.>
The choice of Overwatch is arbitrary among activities I'm familiar with where:
99% of my gaming background comes from 90s video games, but I'm not going to use those as examples because relatively few readers will be familiar with those games. I could also use "modern" board games like Puerto Rico, Dominion, Terra Mystica, ASL etc., but the set of people who played in rated games is very low, which makes the argument less convincing (perhaps people who play in rated games are much worse than people who don't -- unlikely, but difficult to justify without comparing gameplay between rated and unrated games, which is pretty deep into weeds for this post).
There are numerous activities that would be better to use than Overwatch, but I'm not familiar enough with them to use them as examples. For example, on reading a draft of this post, Kevin Burke noted that he's observed the same thing while coaching youth basketball and multiple readers noted that they've observed the same thing in chess, but I'm not familiar enough with youth basketball or chess to confidently say much about either activity even they'd be better examples because it's likely that more readers are familiar with basketball or chess than with Overwatch.[return]
When I first started playing Overwatch (which is when I did that experiment), I ended up getting rated slightly above 50%-ile (for Overwatch players, that was in Plat -- this post is going to use percentiles and not ranks to avoid making non-Overwatch players have to learn what the ranks mean). It's generally believed and probably true that people who play the main ranked game mode in Overwatch are, on average, better than people who only play unranked modes, so it's likely that my actual percentile was somewhat higher than 50%-ile and that all "true" percentiles listed in this post are higher than the nominal percentiles.
Some things you'll regularly see at slightly above 50%-ile are:
Having just one aspect of your gameplay be merely bad instead of atrocious is enough to get to 50%-ile. For me, that was my teamwork, for others, it's other parts of their gameplay. The reason I'd say that my teamwork was bad and not good or even mediocre was that I basically didn't know how to play the game, didn't know what any of the characters’ strengths, weaknesses, and abilities are, so I couldn't possibly coordinate effectively with my team. I also didn't know how the game modes actually worked (e.g., under what circumstances the game will end in a tie vs. going into another round), so I was basically wandering around randomly with a preference towards staying near the largest group of teammates I could find. That's above average.
You could say that someone is pretty good at the game since they're above average. But in a non-relative sense, being slightly above average is quite bad -- it's hard to argue that someone who doesn't notice their entire team being killed from behind while two teammates are yelling "[enemy] behind us!" over voice comms isn't bad.
After playing a bit more, I ended up with what looks like a "true" rank of about 90%-ile when I'm using a character I know how to use. Due to volatility in ranking as well as matchmaking, I played in games as high as 98%-ile. My aim and dodging were still atrocious. Relative to my rank, my aim was actually worse than when I was playing in 50%-ile games since my opponents were much better and I was only a little bit better. In 90%-ile, two copies of myself would probably lose fighting against most people 2v1 in the open. I would also usually lose a fight if the opponent was in the open and I was behind cover such that only 10% of my character was exposed, so my aim was arguably more than 10x worse than median at my rank.
My "trick" for getting to 90%-ile despite being a 1/10th aimer was learning how the game worked and playing in a way that maximized the probability of winning (to the best of my ability), as opposed to playing the game like it's an FFA game where your goal is to get kills as quickly as possible. It takes a bit more context to describe what this means in 90%-ile, so I'll only provide a couple examples, but these are representative of mistakes the vast majority of 90%-ile players are making all of the time (with the exception of a few players who have grossly defective aim, like myself, who make up for their poor aim by playing better than average for the rank in other ways).
Within the game, the goal of the game is to win. There are different game modes, but for the mainline ranked game, they all will involve some kind of objective that you have to be on or near. It's very common to get into a situation where the round timer is ticking down to zero and your team is guaranteed to lose if no one on your team touches the objective but your team may win if someone can touch the objective and not die instantly (which will cause the game to go into overtime until shortly after both teams stop touching the objective). A concrete example of this that happens somewhat regularly is, the enemy team has four players on the objective while your team has two players near the objective, one tank and one support/healer. The other four players on your team died and are coming back from spawn. They're close enough that if you can touch the objective and not instantly die, they'll arrive and probably take the objective for the win, but they won't get there in time if you die immediately after taking the objective, in which case you'll lose.
If you're playing the support/healer at 90%-ile to 95%-ile, this game will almost always end as follows: the tank will move towards the objective, get shot, decide they don't want to take damage, and then back off from the objective. As a support, you have a small health pool and will die instantly if you touch the objective because the other team will shoot you. Since your team is guaranteed to lose if you don't move up to the objective, you're forced to do so to have any chance of winning. After you're killed, the tank will either move onto the objective and die or walk towards the objective but not get there before time runs out. Either way, you'll probably lose.
If the tank did their job and moved onto the objective before you died, you could heal the tank for long enough that the rest of your team will arrive and you'll probably win. The enemy team, if they were coordinated, could walk around or through the tank to kill you, but they won't do that -- anyone who knows that will cause them to win the game and can aim well enough to successfully follow through can't help but end up in a higher rank). And the hypothetical tank on your team who knows that it's their job to absorb damage for their support in that situation and not vice versa won't stay at 95%-ile very long because they'll win too many games and move up to a higher rank.
Another basic situation that the vast majority of 90%-ile to 95%-ile players will get wrong is when you're on offense, waiting for your team to respawn so you can attack as a group. Even at 90%-ile, maybe 1/4 to 1/3 of players won't do this and will just run directly at the enemy team, but enough players will realize that 1v6 isn't a good idea that you'll often 5v6 or 6v6 fights instead of the constant 1v6 and 2v6 fights you see at 50%-ile. Anyway, while waiting for the team to respawn in order to get a 5v6, it's very likely one player who realizes that they shouldn't just run into the middle of the enemy team 1v6 will decide they should try to hit the enemy team with long-ranged attacks 1v6. People will do this instead of hiding in safety behind a wall even when the enemy has multiple snipers with instant-kill long range attacks. People will even do this against multiple snipers when they're playing a character that isn't a sniper and needs to hit the enemy 2-3 times to get a kill, making it overwhelmingly likely that they won't get a kill while taking a significant risk of dying themselves. For Overwatch players, people will also do this when they have full ult charge and the other team doesn't, turning a situation that should be to your advantage (your team has ults ready and the other team has used ults), into a neutral situation (both teams have ults) at best, and instantly losing the fight at worst.
If you ever read an Overwatch forum, whether that's one of the reddit forums or the official Blizzard forums, a common complaint is "why are my teammates so bad? I'm at [90%-ile to 95%-ile rank], but all my teammates are doing obviously stupid game-losing things all the time, like [an example above]". The answer is, of course, that the person asking the question is also doing obviously stupid game-losing things all the time because anyone who doesn't constantly make makor blunders wins too much to stay at 95%-ile. This also applies to me.
People will argue that players at this rank should be good because they're better than 95% of other players, which makes them relatively good. But non-relatively, it's hard to argue that someone who doesn't realize that you should step on the objective to probably win the game instead of not touching the objective for a sure loss is good. One of the most basic things about Overwatch is that it's an objective-based game, but the majority of players at 90%-ile to 95%-ile don't play that way.
For anyone who isn't well into the 99%-ile, reviewing recorded games will reveal game-losing mistakes all the time. For myself, usually ranked 90%-ile or so, watching a recorded game will reveal tens of game losing mistakes in a close game (which is maybe 30% of losses, the other 70% are blowouts where there isn't a single simple mistake that decides the game).
It's generally not too hard to fix these since the mistakes are like the example above: simple enough that once you see that you're making the mistake, the fix is straightforward because the mistake is straightforward.[return]
There are probably some people who just want to be angry at their teammates. Due to how infrequently you get matched with the same players, it's hard to see this in the main rated game mode, but I think you can sometimes see this when Overwatch sometimes runs mini-rated modes.
Mini-rated modes have a much smaller playerbase than the main rated mode, which has two notable side effects: players with a much wider variety of skill levels will be thrown into the same game and you'll see the same players over and over again if you play multiple games.
Since you ended up matched with the same players repeatedly, you'll see players make the same mistakes and cause themselves to lose in the same way and then have the same tantrum and blame their teammates in the same way game after game.
You'll also see tantrums and teammate blaming in the normal rated game mode, but when you see it, you generally can't tell if the person who's having a tantrum is just having a bad day or if it's some other one-off occurrence since, unless you're ranked very high or very low (where there's a smaller pool of closely rated players), you don't run into the same players all that frequently. But when you see a set of players in 15-20 games over the course of a few weeks and you see them lose the game for the same reason a double digit number of times followed by the exact same tantrum, you might start to suspect that some fraction of those people really want to be angry and that the main thing they're getting out of playing the game is a source of anger. You might also wonder about this from how some people use social media, but that's a topic for another post.[return]
For example, there will also be players who have some kind of disability that prevents them from improving, but at the levels we're talking about, 99%-ile or below, that will be relatively rare (certainly well under 50%, and I think it's not unreasonable to guess that it's well under 10% of people who choose to play the game). IIRC, there's at least one player who's in the top 500 who's deaf (this is severely disadvantageous since sound cues give a lot of fine-grained positional information that cannot be obtained in any other way), at least one legally blind player who's 99%-ile, and multiple players with physical impairments that prevent them from having fine-grained control of a mouse, i.e., who are basically incapable of aiming, who are 99%-ile.
There are also other kinds of reasons people might not improve. For example, Kevin Burke has noted that when he coaches youth basketball, some children don't want to do drills that they think make them look foolish (e.g., avoiding learning to dribble with their off hand even during drills where everyone is dribbling poorly because they're using their off hand). When I spent a lot of time in a climbing gym with a world class coach who would regularly send a bunch of kids to nationals and some to worlds, I'd observe the same thing in his classes -- kids, even ones who are nationally or internationally competitive, would sometimes avoid doing things because they were afraid it would make them look foolish to their peers. The coach's solution in those cases was to deliberately make the kid look extremely foolish and tell them that it's better to look stupid now than at nationals.[return]